China Construction Bank, the number two lender, is cutting loans by 70pc over the second half of the year. "We noticed that some loans didn't go into the real economy. Housing prices are rising too fast," said the bank's president, Zhang Jianguo. Andy Xie, a leading consultant, said China's boom was a "giant Ponzi scheme" that was likely to "bring very bad consequences" for the country. "The stock market is in a final frenzy again. The most ignorant retail investors are being sucked in by rising momentum," he said. Equities are overvalued by 50pc to 100pc. Mr Xie, who wrote his doctoral thesis on Japan's bubble in the 1980s, said China's ratio of property prices to incomes is seven times higher than in the US. It costs three months' salary per square meter of space – arguably the highest in the world – though tower blocks are sitting empty. Prices are being propped up by state enterprises, abetted by local Communist bosses. Mr Xie said Chinese booms and busts follow a political rythm. There is a deeply-rooted belief that the authorities can keep the game going – the "Panda put", China's answer to the "Greenspan Put" – and that the Communist Party will not let the rally fizzle before the 60th anniversary of the revolution on October 1. This belief is self-fulfilling, for a while. Mr Xie expects China's rally to falter around October, followed by fresh shots of liquidity before the economy falls into a deeper slump by 2012. "Property prices could drop like Japan's in the last two decades, which would destroy the banking system," he said. Mr Xie said China's asset boom is the flip-side of the weak US dollar. US monetary stimulus is in effect leaking across the Pacific. Bust will follow when the dollar rallies, draining liquidity again. If the Fed tightens abruptly as it did under Paul Volcker in the early 1980s, the denouement could be painful for China. Beijing deserves praise for trying to switch reliance from exports towards the domestic economy. It has had some success. Retail sales have risen 15pc over the last year. But Professor Michael Pettis from Beijing University said it is proving very hard to induce the Chinese to alter their spending habits. The cultural barriers will take years to overcome. Instead, the stimulus is feeding more industrial investment, leading to more excess capacity worldwide. While Chinese GDP continues to grow near 8pc, this is based on output. In the West, GDP growth is based on spending. These two definitions are chalk and cheese. The underlying story has not changed. The East-West imbalances that lay behind the Great Recession of 2008-2009 are getting worse, not better
